How a rolling 24-hour odds drop works

A price movement only means something when you know its starting point. A fall from 2.20 to 1.90 since a market opened five days ago answers a different question from a fall between yesterday afternoon and now.

Bet-Mate's Dropping Odds table uses a rolling 24-hour reference. At 15:00 it compares the current price with the price at 15:00 the day before. At 16:00 the starting point moves to 16:00 the day before. So the table shows the change within a moving period, instead of carrying an early move through the whole life of a market.

The reference price is 2.00 and the current price is 1.80. The drop is (2.00 − 1.80) ÷ 2.00 × 100 = 10%.

If the current price stays at 1.80 but an hour later the rolling reference becomes 1.90, the drop shown becomes about 5.26%. The smaller number doesn't mean the price went up — the reference changed. To see what happened in between, open the match details and check the time of the latest change.

The implied probability at 2.00 is 50%, and at 1.80 it is about 55.56%. That is a rise of about 5.56 percentage points — a different measurement from a 10% drop in the odds. Neither number tells you the true chance of the outcome.

If a market opened less than 24 hours ago, the table compares with its opening price and shows "opened Xh ago" under the match. A six-hour history is not a full 24-hour observation, and missing history is not the same as no movement.

Before reading too much into a large drop, check the market, the reference time and the volume. One comparison doesn't tell you why a price changed, or whether it is still changing.