Reading football odds: price and probability

In a 1X2 market, 1 is a home win, X a draw and 2 an away win. Under 2.5 goals means fewer than three goals; Over 2.5 means three or more — within the settlement period the provider states.

Always check that period. A result after normal time is different from qualification or a result that includes extra time. Two prices for the same teams may describe different bets.

At 2.50 the implied probability is 40%; at 2.00 it is 50%. The odds fell by 20%, while the implied probability rose by 10 percentage points. These two numbers use different bases and can't be swapped.

Implied probability comes from a price. It is not a verified forecast. Margin, exchange conditions and market information all affect the price you see.

First identify the match and the market. Then check the reference time, the current price and the source. Make sure the volume refers to the same market, and whether the comparison uses offered prices, prices after commission or no-vig estimates.

A sharp drop can follow news, a correction or changing interest — the price history doesn't tell you which. Volume doesn't show who traded or what they knew. A coloured label summarises a rule; it is not evidence of a certain result.

If a label is unclear, open How to read. If you think the data is wrong, tell us through Contact.